Weekly to Daily Summer Trading Plan June 2015

“Traders use a trading plan to set their trades, risk management and execution with the nimbleness of trading the direction of the market.” Joel Wissing Money Maker Edge™ Trading Course.

Weekly to Daily to shape your perspective of the market.  Sequencing is one of the most important steps for a trader to learn.  How one sets up their trade plan is how you create your opportunities in the market.

The weekly chart is very consolidated at the top of the market where it has been hovering trying to make it’s way to new highs. 2074 the previous swing high on a move up is the new support on this move, as noted by the red line.

The sellers had a slight uptick in volume coming close to the average monthly volume of 5259k. An increase over the previous month.  Still watching as the volume spikes are decreasing.

The Range is very small at 29.75 points for May.  This type of small range occurs normally before we have some volatility and a break out in a market.  Last years summer also started with this type of small range and then broke out in August.  We might see the same unless an outlier pops on to the scene.  Greece exit, could be a big mover of the markets, or a second tier bank failure for non payments of debt.  Remember in a widely held market supported by quantitative easing we will see these periods of consolidation, low range days, weeks and months and then a small correction which acts like a spring to bring in the volatility to break through new highs.  Here is the article about some of the pressure on the 2015 markets.

Comparing 2013 – 2014 weekly charts for Summer Trading 2015

Comparing the summer price volatility, range and volume to get an idea of price action for Summer 2015 trading. Year on year the average volume and the range has decreased from 2013 to 2014. you can see this on the first histogram on the chart.  Although the change was less in 2014 than 13 we could see the same if no outliers move this market.

The range also dipped significantly during this period with a spike into August.  2014 summer trading range was much tighter than 2013 on less volume.  The first week of August seems to bring in a rush of volume and an increase in the range, as you can see in the dip from August lasting 2-4 weeks  from both summer sessions.

Again, during the 2014 summer we were in full swing quantitative easing so the market levitated it’s way up.  QE is the fashion and we could see it enter in other countries too.  Don’t forget also about the Greeks not making payments and asking for extensions.  It could put pressure on the euro, boosting the Dollar and extending foreign demand.  Where this will take the market, no one knows as usually stocks and the dollar index has a reverse correlation, but has acted the opposite in recent months.

Trade what you see, do your own analysis, and educate your self.  No one can be responsible for your trading except for you.  Be nimble, and always manage your risk first.