Last week, I mention about “ potential Sell time“. Look like what I was looking happen. On S&P500, mention about buyers will retest in future week 1670.00 point , and depending on how strong Buyers will be(weak or strong), we will see if Sellers will get in the Market or wait for another opportunity.Last week was also important for Sellers to keep the price as low as they can, to create a nice “short Signal” ,Candlestick for month of “May“. Even If I will prefer see to sellers close at 1600 to get the perfect short signal . At the end.it wasn’t that bad at all, to see sellers close at 1630 point. Sellers was able to bring Sp500 price from 1685 to 1630, 50 points drop  in 7 Days!

Sp500 Index

SP500 Index Monthly Chart :On monthly chart, few thing show me, Buyers are going in a “trap” again…. last 2 major corrections/Traps happen at the same time almost,September/November, depending how you decide to do your analyse.

Why those month are critical? Well, is time when everyone buy. I personally hear so many “professional Investor” say  to other Investors, Buy In September and Sell In May. And when you ask them why? is because everybody doing the same, and if everybody start to buy at the same time, market will go UP.  And at some point they have a good point, and this “strategy” or “hope“what I like to call,  can work and work most of the time.

But you need only one bad year, to lose you last 10 year of rally…and more!It’s what happen on 2000 and 2008.

Why this is a perfect time to sell for correction? because, Big guys need to sell in big volume, and for this you need lots of buyers… well there you go, when is the best time to sell than when anyone will start to buy at any price, just because people was told so.

So when, the Selling time will began? well…September will be my “Check point”. And September, is the time, when sellers should start to test to break Bullish/Bull Market. Or if you prefer my lower Green Line.

Also If you notice, the MA50 and MA200 are start to be at the same level as it was in 2000 and 2008 .

Dollars US

US Dollars Index Monthly Chart

Since January I was talking about US Dollars getting stronger. Then get in a H&S pattern, and on last post testing 200MA with  engulfing strength. This was very important for buyers to pass 200MA and stay above to keep “Long Direction”.

On weekly chart, sellers just crash buyers and we close exactly under 200ma with a very long and nice unsupported price.

What to check in future?  is sellers will be strong to break lower level of last shoulder.  If yes, US Index, will make a major correction very fast.

I don’t say to start to sell or buy… but just be aware of what may happen soon, And don’t be to greedy by thinking because you miss last rally,you don’t want to miss the next one with your friends, so you will be ready to use your mortgage to get in the market.

“I don’t Predict the futures, but I analyse past to see what may happen in futures and be prepare for the worst”.by Vedernikov :), my self.