U.S. consumer spending tumbled in September and a purchasing managers’ survey showed the biggest deterioration since 1968, foreshadowing a deepening economic slump. Consumers have thrown in the towel it seems. Some economists think that they have no choice but to cut back on spending in a very big way. There is speculation that this is going to be a fairly deep, long recession.

Job losses, increases in food and fuel costs and falling property values brought an end to the longest expansion in spending on record and made the economy the most important issue in next week’s presidential election. The collapse in lending and sentiment this month indicate Americans will keep retrenching.

Treasuries rose, with two-year notes headed for the best month since February, as slowed consumer spending added to speculation the U.S. economy will continue to deteriorate and boosted demand for the safest assets. U.S. debt gained after a government report showed personal spending fell 0.3 percent in September, more than forecast, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation cooled.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent probability the Fed will reduce its target rate to 0.5 percent at its Dec. 16 meeting. The odds a week ago were zero. The rest of the bets are for a quarter-percentage point reduction.