May 12, 2015 Corona, Ca Weekly trading plan on the S&P500 emini futures with weekly chart, daily chart and a look at the effect of weekly long term price targets and range are in effect.
Price action on the weekly chart can be seen in many areas, first by looking at the candle stick and seeing the range from the high to the low which this past week was 44.25 points, just under the 49.10 average range for the past 5 weeks.
So what does this mean for our weekly trading plan?
The previous three weeks sellers moved in and brought price down to support at 2035, then this week the buyers have moved in bringing price to a high around 2108. We broke through the resistance at 2073 and 2084 on the daily chart and clears the way for a test to previous swing highs of 2018.
Looking at average range of 49, for the past 5 weeks with a decrease in volatility, this would tend to show that the high we could reach this week from a low of 2060 is short of the high at 2109 projection. Volume is increasing which could effect the range as when weekly volume increases there is a tendency to see larger price ranges. We are going to need more volume commitment from the buyers to see this break to new highs. If we see buyers moving in on increased volume we would look to buy the dips for our weekly trading plan after we see reversal patterns from last weeks sellers control.
Daily Price Action on the S&P500 emini futures contract for this week.
The daily chart on the S&P500 emini futures contract is showing buyers moving in to control after Monday’s loss of control to the sellers. The bottom was confirmed in this move with the touch of the trend line at 2081 which is the 50MA. If the day ends in a doji or a buyers hammer (where price closes higher than the open), then we will look for a continuation of this short term bullish trend in to the week.
You might note that the equidistant green box is coming to it’s end and we are about to enter the next phase of the move until the next green price projection box. We don’t know if price will close another gap at 2012 and confirm off of the 200MA, or if buyers will stay in control taking it to new highs. The equidistant move would be a projected high of 2140 which is the mid point in the price projection box for the next consolidation period.
Remember to do your own analysis, and if you are following the crowd you might be falling into a market maker trap. Manage your risk first and make a written weekly trading plan. This will allow you to reflect on your own analysis.
May 5, 2015 Corona, Ca Weekly trading plan S&P500 emini futures Continuation Pattern
The “W Pattern” is still playing out mentioned in the last trading plan post. We are seeing the 5 step pattern with a 50% retracement to support before the next move in this continuation pattern.
The last two days of this daily chart showed a spinning top like pattern where the buyers brought price higher then sellers rejected it to close with almost a doji like pattern, Sellers moved in today May 5, 2015 and hit support at 2090 with buyers stepping in at 11:30 AM
We are still above the 200MA and in a bull market Trend. The 50MA is also holding support and we shall see during the week if this level around 2083 is tested again. 2060 is the next major support for the price action to chop back and forth. If the market breaks below this support, we could see a further move to the 200MA at 2010 where we still have an open Gap. These light blue boxes are open gaps.
Weekly Trading Plan Considerations – Take note of this weeks news and probably lower volume because of the Japanese Holiday Golden Week.
Sellers in control – watch for a move to support at 2083 then a move to next levels of support 2060 and if there is major sell pressure on light volume, then test to 2010.
Buyers in control – bounce off of support and get price to new highs. Probably Friday as a recovery from the unemployment news on Thursday.
Always manage your risk first, and make a written trading plan.
April 13, 2015 Corona, CA Trading Plan the W Pattern for April 2015 on the S&P500 emini futures contract.
This has given the sellers two pushes from the double top and buyers following up for a third attempt on the resistance at the top of the consolidated zone. The 50 MA is acting as a Point of control between the buyers and sellers.
If you notice the move from point 3 to point 4, you can see the move to point 5 is about a 50% retrace of the buyers move. Then support follows.
The W pattern holds the supporting trend line and sets the base for what could be the next move up.
The projected equidistant price move is 2140 if buyers stay in control.
Always manage your risk first. Although this pattern is a continuation pattern to new highs, the market has many outliers that could reverse this especially as we are headed into earnings.
Failure of the W pattern – we could see sellers move in.
If Sellers move in, we could see price close the open Gap at 2016 and then a move to the 200MA where if we stay above it the bull market is still held in tact.