Weekly to Daily Summer Trading Plan June 2015
“Traders use a trading plan to set their trades, risk management and execution with the nimbleness of trading the direction of the market.” Joel Wissing Money Maker Edge™ Trading Course.
Weekly to Daily to shape your perspective of the market. Sequencing is one of the most important steps for a trader to learn. How one sets up their trade plan is how you create your opportunities in the market.
The weekly chart is very consolidated at the top of the market where it has been hovering trying to make it’s way to new highs. 2074 the previous swing high on a move up is the new support on this move, as noted by the red line.
The sellers had a slight uptick in volume coming close to the average monthly volume of 5259k. An increase over the previous month. Still watching as the volume spikes are decreasing.
The Range is very small at 29.75 points for May. This type of small range occurs normally before we have some volatility and a break out in a market. Last years summer also started with this type of small range and then broke out in August. We might see the same unless an outlier pops on to the scene. Greece exit, could be a big mover of the markets, or a second tier bank failure for non payments of debt. Remember in a widely held market supported by quantitative easing we will see these periods of consolidation, low range days, weeks and months and then a small correction which acts like a spring to bring in the volatility to break through new highs. Here is the article about some of the pressure on the 2015 markets.
Comparing 2013 – 2014 weekly charts for Summer Trading 2015
Comparing the summer price volatility, range and volume to get an idea of price action for Summer 2015 trading. Year on year the average volume and the range has decreased from 2013 to 2014. you can see this on the first histogram on the chart. Although the change was less in 2014 than 13 we could see the same if no outliers move this market.
The range also dipped significantly during this period with a spike into August. 2014 summer trading range was much tighter than 2013 on less volume. The first week of August seems to bring in a rush of volume and an increase in the range, as you can see in the dip from August lasting 2-4 weeks from both summer sessions.
Again, during the 2014 summer we were in full swing quantitative easing so the market levitated it’s way up. QE is the fashion and we could see it enter in other countries too. Don’t forget also about the Greeks not making payments and asking for extensions. It could put pressure on the euro, boosting the Dollar and extending foreign demand. Where this will take the market, no one knows as usually stocks and the dollar index has a reverse correlation, but has acted the opposite in recent months.
Trade what you see, do your own analysis, and educate your self. No one can be responsible for your trading except for you. Be nimble, and always manage your risk first.
Corona, Ca weekly trading plan SP500 emini futures on a re-tracement and low volume inside day.
Trading plan for the S&P500 emini futures. Price has moved into the next Price projection block from 2090 to 2203. The sellers moved in on Tuesday testing the support and almost closing the gap which is laying at 2091, very close to the 50MA, which could be added support.
The seller volume spiked and moved up to 1.54 million contracts traded showing some volatility with the buyers coming back in at support keeping the market above 2100. The market was closed in the US on Monday and Tuesday when the market opened we had sellers committing to this small move down. Wednesday price action on the open had a small test down and then the buyers moved in to bring the market up 17 points. If the market closes above 2123 today we could have a powerful buy pattern as the buyers would have engulfed yesterdays price action.
The price projection to 2140, then to 2165 is still open. We will see where buyers stand going into Friday’s session to see if there is room for new highs.
Remember this is a widely held supported market. The US is not in quantitative easing but other countries are and with institutional buy backs at an all time high it seems this bull market still has direction. A 20 to 40 point pull back is not the signal to the end. A correction, which is normally assumed to be 10% correction in price would put us at support above 1800 which looks like the line in the sand for control in this market. This market is very risky and only use risk capital to trade it. Do not trade unless you know what you are doing. When corrections in the market occur, they occur quickly and Market Makers, take the profit out of the market, and normally that means any retail traders.
Having a written trading plan is helpful to be able to analyze your work. If you don’t understand how you analyze and look at the market, you will not experience improvements in your risk management and your ability capitalize on market price action. You don’t have to take every trade, there will always be another trade.
2015 Trading Plan – Corona, Ca S&P500 extends gains on low volume and low volatility.
The S&P500 emini futures weekly trading chart is showing a very congested trading zone at the top of the market. The 5.4 million contracts traded is slightly above the weekly average but can be considered low volume. The previous weeks trading range is 54.3 points which is slightly above the average for the past 5 weeks. Last week the market ended in a Doji where sellers could not change the direction of the market and buyers did not make any real gains until Friday’s close.
Seems that traders are waiting for some decision around the Grexit or some other outlier to come to fruition.
2015 Trading Plan News for the week
- May 20, 10:30 Crude 2:00 FOMC
- May 21, 8:30 Initial Claims 10:00 Philly FED, Existing home sales 10:30 Nat Gas
- May 22, 8:30 CPI
The Daily Chart on the other hand is spotted with open gaps, low volume moves and signs of continuation to the next consolidation zone.
The daily volume on the S&P500 emini futures contract is under the moving average. The moving average on volume is also headed lower and lower. A rising market on low buyer volume is showing weakness. Although the official US Quantitative easing program ended last October, we can expect corporate buy backs and foreign banks to be buying in until the top comes in and there will be another correction.
There are 5 open gaps since the last correction. We look for 5-7 open gaps for each correction. Remember this is just a tendency. Don’t gamble on it. The next resistance at 2136-40 is our next target on the week and then moving into the next consolidation period if there is no correction.
This week could be a slow grind up if the news doesn’t send us rallying. Any news has been good news as observed last Friday, watch for Oil to consolidate too and for some weakness in Oil, Gold and Silver as the dollar reacts to the conditions in Europe.
Pressure is mounting on the Euro and we are seeing some hair trigger moves in trading, so watch your self. This next break out could take a lot of money out of the markets.