S&P 500 day trading
Hi Traders, Last 2 weeks, I posted about SP500 going Long, by creating Higher Low and try to go for news highs. Last week Sellers retest 1534 prices, and break it. But there wasn’t that much commitment from sellers…or buyers was way to strong for them, on 50% ret. support. How ever, I still like Long position better than short for technical reason, but don’t refute market can go both way.
Weekly Chart: show me we go Long
Here I’m showing, that last Bullish move was stronger than previous. And on Sellers side, it was more weak. In volatility and in volumes. Is why I’m more long than short for next week.
Higher Low was not broken by sellers last week, and buyers succeed to bring market back at 1554, after testing last 3 weeks highs on same day.
Where we are? We are consolidating, since 3 weeks…and next targets will be return in 1675 zone for long. Or If sellers break this Higher Low, go back to 1600 area.
60Min Chart on ES Futures:
Here you can see how Sellers lost they momentum, and how buyers making a come back.
What Make me think Buyers will make it this week? well, on 60min chart, Buyers are above 200MA and 50MA. And on Friday, we saw 200MA Supporting Buyers.
Plus 50MA and 200MA, are working together to go Long.(both on move up).
Great Trading Week everyone!
…looking for a consolidation for next week
ES E-mini monthly and Weekly, Look on volume level.
Weekly chart:On those charts, you can see, as we was going back to the double top, and even when we pass and close above, Volume did not increase at all. even worst, they decrease.
Monthly chart: 8 business days left to close this monthly candlestick. in 3 weeks, since this month start, we din’t even hit 50% of average monthly volume.
This what make me keep away to trading next week. If you look on 1st Rally and they volume, and compare with 2nd rally and they volume, you may start to catch that something coming.
I’m not short or long…but on hold. Why? well, sellers don’t showing they presence at all, as we hit new double top of all time again. And buyers are able to close above, with lower volume than last time .
I don’t know for you, but for my self, I will wait for a clear direction, to avoid head fake from both side.
Some peoples say we are starting a very important corrections, after seeing sellers take control of US Market. It may happen it may not, but so far, we still in Bull Market, And is just normal to see price fall for little bit, after testing the highest trend line of Bullish trend.
Note:Before we get in a major correction/Bear Market , Sellers need to pass my short targets/Resistances. Every time when sellers will hit those target/resistance , buyers will be ready to take control again and bring market at new highs, at least try. At this point, it will depend on volume/Commitment from each player.
For next months, till September, I’m interesting to see if Sellers will be in control most of the time, and at what price SP500 will be in September. depending on how thing go, will see if Bear market are coming or no.
Next week I’m looking to see buyers get in the market, but is also the last week of the month. It will create a new candlestick, and depending if we finish with sellers, buyers or Doji, it will tell us if Market will keep shorting, or will try to retest last highs.
SP500 Index Daily For Next Week,
I’m Looking to see Buyers take control in Market. After last drop, Market test a resistance ( orange area). On Friday we saw lots of buyers get in the market and show commitment to take control of sp500 in short futures. It will be important to see how Market will act on 50MA. will Buyers succeed to close above 50MA?
PS: I create a “potential Bearish trend”, If thing go well, this bearish trend can be very useful in futures for short positions.
Something else very interesting to trade next week, is US Dollars or EUR/USD , Doesn’t really matter witch one you use, since they move opposite way both.
US$ Daily Chart
On US$, we can see that it hit 50MA and 50% Ret. Fibonacci. Even if we have no clear signal for short or Long so far, I’M looking to see US dollars go short. First target will be at half way to the 200 and if we see no major resistance, US$ will retest 200MA.
On volume side, we can see good amount of volume from buyers side. the next step, it’s to see if sellers will be as strong as buyers on last move up. if they won’t be able to keep same commitment as buyers, I’m looking to go Long on US$.
EURUSD Dailly Chart
On daily chart, we also see a 50% Ret. Fibonacci, and this happen on 50MA&200MA. When those pattern happen, we can definitely expect to see price bouncing to go at list till 50% on last move. down. Like on US$ , keep your eyes on volume. it will tell us everything for next direction to take.