Monthly Trading Plan S&P500 on a Financial precipice seeing direction on a monthly trading chart.
March 30, 2001 we have a cross with divergence showing us a 600 point sell off from highs.
December 31, 2003 Bullish cross with a 700 point rally to the up side..
July 31, 2008 a bearish cross with a 900 point sell off from highs.
April 30, 2010 bullish cross with a 1450 point move to the upside.
May, 2016 upcoming cross or continuation to the upside?
We shall see.
Standing on this what is considered to be an over bought market, where the markets have bought too much, risk is not represented with a 0% interest rate, and a Central Bank policy of never ending printing and purchase of bonds and stocks. A reversal may not occur.
The question is: What kind of intervention will we see on the next sell off?
Will the Fed save us if we retrace to previous support and then sending us on to our next round of highs for 4 more years of corporate expansion?
Upside target of 2950.
Is this our reality? If you see that the market has direction then buying the dips could be part of the monthly trading plan.
Reality hits the markets – targets for a falling market.
If we break the major support at 1800.
If The market reverses, our next major support is 1550 to 1580 then 1350.
Major sell off support at 950.
We shall see.
S&P500 Emini future Trading Plan – As January goes so goes the year. Corona, Ca Jan. 28, 2016
Traders have many superstitions which are backed by some correlations and timing. One of these is: as the first day of market goes so goes the week, so goes the month and so goes the year. If this is the case then this could be a down year for the market. We have a few more days to go so we shall see.
Inverted Head and shoulders could extend the buyers move up to resistance 1911, 1940, then 1956.
If sellers execute off this possible flag pattern, then we could retest the support at 1865, 1849. then 1804. If the market sells off then watch for 1769.25 as next major support.
Lots of volatility headed into this market with no clear direction in this consolidated area with smaller range candlesticks during this past week.
Will we confirm this past move down to 1804? Will we execute off of support and buyers control the next move up from the Inverted Head and Shoulders?
Conflicting patterns. Short term day trading of support and resistance based on commitment of traders are giving the most solid signals.
Next we look at a trading plan for Gold and how buyers are getting squeezed on all the reversals from lows. News is pushing this market around with a lot of volatility. If you are new to trading it is best to stand on the side and practice your entries and stop management in a simulated trading account. There is no real direction in the market with a lot of media claiming we are oversold. This could be a consolidation zone where the market is resting to gain strength either for a reversal or continuation of the move down. We will see who commits to the direction of the market soon as our daily price range is decreasing.
Corona, Ca December 17, 2015 Bear Market – what is a bear market and are we in a bear market?
With the Fed raising rates by .25% this past Thursday I have received many questions about this supposed bear market that the US. First let’s look at the S&P500 emini futures.
A bear market occurs when the market stays below a 20% move from the swing highs.
On this daily chart, we can see the high was 2100. If we take off 20% from the high the price the market would have to stay below is 420 points lower around 1680.
When Will a bear market occur?
A bear market will occur when we are below the 20% drop in the market from its high.
Presently, the buyers are still in control to the blue zone where sellers will have to be in control to keep direction moving us towards the Next blue zone around 1700.
The market is in a consolidated range. We are in a 200 point range where price is looking for a commitment to either move higher or lower. Our present pattern is buyers are in control so we would be a buyer of dips, until price breaks below 1960 where sellers are in control for the short term.
Gold is in a Bear Market
If you look at a 20% decrease in the price of gold from 1900, then price below 1500 will be in a bear market.
Price has been below $1500 since April 2013. We don’t know when it will change direction and become bullish, but as US debt increases many of the “Gold Bugs” believe it is bottoming.
Technically, gold looks like it still has a little bit more to go and could break the psychological $1000 an ounce soon.