End of the month trading plan for July 2015 into 1st trading week of August.
Looking for this to retrace to 2100 and then consolidate and move up, or for sellers to take control and move past the support at 2070 and break through to 2050 area close to the 50 moving average. There is some support at this level, around 2070 and we could see a 10 point move up before it reverses and breaks support to return to the 50 moving average.
The consolidation zone from 2050 to 2118 area has been tested on many occasions and the floor has not been determined yet. There has been no real capitulation buying or selling.
We had a higher range for the week with the range moving from last week 35 point range to this past weeks 56 point range. In this type of chop though we must be careful for turn arounds when we get these engulfing patterns because most have only established support and resistance.
Always manage your risk first, and never take a trade you can’t afford.
Trading plan in to August 2015 – Mind the gap
The US markets had a partial correction with a few break away gaps which can become longer term targets for the next move down by sellers. The first gap we can see filled today bringing the market down to within a few points of the previous open gap.
The Opening gap on the S&P500 emini futures was 8 points, we opened with buyers in control, and with in the first hours of trading we closed the Gap. The Gap looks like it acted as resistance where the sellers moved in and then moved the market to the previous lows on the open.
There is still another open gap just below at 2001.50 .
This is another daily chart showing open gaps for the previous months trading action.
Trading plan for open gaps on the daily chart.
The open Gaps below the 200 Moving average are a good target for a major sell off. We bounced on the 200MA and retraced to the previous swing highs. The market might need a pullback to break through this resistance as sellers have moved in on many occasions at these price levels.
The 50MA is the next down side target at 2094.75. You can see that volume has picked up a little bit on the sell off and then volume drops as we put in a bit of price failure under 2108 as buyers moved in.
As we are in earnings this next week we could watch for some volatility. The market really moved with exuberance from the supported lows on the 200MA, it looks like we are watching for some other event to sideline this move up. Be careful trading the highs and always manage your risk first.
Trading Plan for the S&P500 emini futures, after Greece and China dramas.
This has been a great month of theatre in the markets with S&P500 having the summer pullback, just before earnings. So leaving the nonsense of “Drama Trading” and coming back to the real world technical trading let’s look at some charts.
Trading Plan – Weekly Chart S&P500 Emini futures.
The weekly chart shows that we had a large volume week, around 3 million higher than previous seeks, with sellers bringing us down to support but buyers moving in to bounce price off of support the 50MA which is the yearly average price. Support came in at 2032 just a few points away from the 50MA but close enough. We could see price test this area again.
Price projection for buyers 2080 to 2100, or extreme move to new highs.
Price projection for Sellers 2025 to 1980 based on high volatility.
The range was below average at 41 points, not very volatile but slightly higher than the previous two weeks.
With the weekly average trading range we can see support and resistance extremes of 2013 on sell side and buyer side control to 2100. The 200 Moving average on the daily chart co-incides with the 50 Moving average on the weekly chart.
The market is still held within the “Drama Pattern” of a consolidated range within a short period looking for direction but chopping back in forth in an above average daily range. Joel Wissing
The range from 2036 to 2075 is this “Drama Pattern” where no direction is taken. In the short term beginning part of the week we could see a gap down from the relief run up we saw on Friday. The close Friday was 2069.50 Watching for a gap down. If there is selling pressure on no decision with Greece Crisis, I would watch for a close of Thursday’s open gap at 2043.25
If buyers do step in off of this first support, then I would watch for a move higher to 2090.25 where the 50 Moving Average on the continuous 24 hour trading chart. Resistance on the move up at. 2082.25 to 2090.
We might need some type of capitulation price action so there could be a head fake into sellers price failure under the 2032 range. Next support is 2000 for psychological support, 1980, 1950 from previous swing lows.